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It seems like the holiday season starts earlier every year. This is especially true for advertisers looking to connect with holiday shoppers, given that consumers are shopping earlier and earlier—in fact, 16% of US holiday shoppers have already begun!
Though many of the same themes and trends that shaped last year’s holiday season—such as earlier shopping and price-conscious consumers—will hold true in 2024, there are new factors that will shape the landscape as well. In particular, political advertising for the US presidential election will drive ad inventory prices up and heighten brand safety challenges, adding some additional complexity for marketers working on holiday campaigns.
Considering all of the above, proactive and intentional planning now will help advertising teams to foster meaningful connections with audiences and drive revenue for their teams and clients.
After modest growth in 2022, total US holiday retail sales showed similarly slow but solid growth last year. This is largely due to prolonged economic uncertainty and consequently tighter consumer budgets, as well as a shift in discretionary spending towards services and experiences rather than retail. This year, retail holiday season sales are projected to grow by 4.8%, a sign that growth rates are falling back to earth after outsized pandemic and post-pandemic leaps in 2020 and 2021.
And just how many people will be (or are already) shopping for the holidays? 2024 research from a GWI x Basis ImpactIQ Research Panel found that 95% of all US adults participated in the holidays in 2023, and that nearly all adults are set to celebrate at least one holiday in 2024. Among those who celebrate, 77% say they plan to buy gifts for others this year. And though most shoppers say they plan to spend either the same or a bit more this holiday season, 54% say they feel financially burdened.
As such, while the 2024 holiday season represents a significant opportunity to connect with most US adults, budget adherence and financial planning will be top of mind for many of them. For advertising teams, highlighting discounts, promotions, and budget-friendly options will help ensure that target audiences feel confident in their purchases while staying true to their planned budgets.
With the supply chain issues and economic instability that have marked the past few years still fresh in their minds, 2024 holiday shoppers are concerned about stock shortages, raised prices, and delayed shipping during the holidays, according to the GWI x Basis ImpactIQ Research Panel. As a result, they’ll shop earlier, with the holiday season effectively starting pre-September and lasting all of Q4. In fact, one in two holiday shoppers plan to begin their shopping before Halloween this year. Spooky, right?
Launching holiday campaigns early and incorporating messaging around efficiency and preparedness can cater to shoppers’ desires to avoid delays and out-of-stock items. By promoting early deals and the benefits of shopping ahead, teams can capture the attention of proactive shoppers, boosting early sales. The big takeaway? When it comes to holiday campaign planning, the time to act is now.
Every four years, the peak of holiday shopping happens to coincide with the US presidential election, as is the case in 2024. Although they operate outside the political sphere, marketers working on holiday campaigns must understand how political advertising for this year’s election cycle will impact the broader marketing landscape in order to plan effectively for their holiday campaigns.
This year, political ad spend is projected to reach between $10.2 billion and $12 billion, representing a potential increase of between 13% and 30% from the prior presidential election cycle. And, political ad spend data from Basis platform in 2022 and 2020 demonstrates that about 50% of the year’s political spending happens in the 30 days leading up to the election. Considering that this time period coincides with the holiday shopping season, and that Black Friday and Cyber Monday will happen just weeks after the election, advertising teams should anticipate CPMs to be exceptionally high during this time.
And what of election advertising’s potential impact on brand perception? Given how divisive political content and ads can be, the election season presents heightened brand safety risks, including the potential for ads to appear next to negative political content or alongside political disinformation or misinformation. Marketers working on holiday campaigns will need to up their placement control, especially in the month leading up to Election Day, to ensure their ads are shown in premium, non-divisive environments. To accomplish this, marketing teams can leverage allow lists and block lists, invest in premium content via programmatic guaranteed and PMPs, and may choose to avoid social platforms where divisive political conversations are likely to run rampant, such as X. Given the negative sentiments that often accompany political ads, teams working on holiday campaigns this year will be well-served to craft a strong brand safety plan now to avoid problems as Election Day draws near.
During the 2023 shopping season, the top sources for winter holiday purchase inspiration were suggestions from family and friends, online searches, and social media, according to the GWI x Basis ImpactIQ Research Panel. In 2024, 44% of shoppers feel that online tools, including AI tools, will be essential for them when getting organized for the winter holidays. The takeaway for marketers? Technology is playing an increasingly vital role in enhancing the shopping experience.
Given that many shoppers rely heavily on online resources and digital channels to get inspired and organized for the holiday season, omnichannel marketing with a focus on digital channels offers a prime opportunity to reach consumers in ways that complement their buying journeys. To that end, here are a few things to keep in mind:
With third-party cookie deprecation on the horizon (though, admittedly, further on said horizon than it was earlier this year), teams that proactively plan to capture, organize, and leverage customer first-party data this holiday season will set their campaigns up for success—and prevent scrambling when the 2025 holiday season rolls around.
By getting data collection and storage processes organized now, teams can avoid having to fix problems later, freeing up time and resources to make the most of the data they have collected. This might include optimizing a brand’s website for data intake, as well as ensuring a brand has effective systems and technology for standardizing, organizing, and storing that data.
This is also a great opportunity to leverage loyalty programs, newsletters, and other opt-in programs to collect customer data to create personalized advertising experiences. It’s a win-win for advertising teams and consumers, as it allows teams to deliver impactful campaigns and shoppers to save on their holiday expenditures.
Once advertisers are set up with efficient systems for collecting first-party data, they can find privacy-friendly and regulation-compliant ways to leverage it for personalized marketing. For example, advertisers can create targetable audiences with a CRM or CDP to sharpen their focus and to make their creative more relevant and effective. Advertisers can also take advantage of new AI-driven personalization and content generation tools—technologies that 72% of US digital retailers believe will significantly impact their businesses this year—to create personalized ads and shopping recommendations.
Though holiday celebrations may seem distant, the reality is that consumers are starting their shopping earlier and earlier. Deliberate planning now can help brand and agency leaders prepare their teams to adapt to consumers’ spending behaviors and preferences, cater to their budgetary concerns, adapt to the added complexity of the upcoming election, and craft winning campaigns that resonate with audiences and drive sales. And, by improving their systems for collecting and leveraging first-party data, leaders can ensure their teams are set up for success in 2024—and beyond.
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Looking for more insights on how to make the most of the 2024 holiday advertising opportunity? In our new research report, we explore insights from a GWI x Basis ImpactIQ panel of 2,000 US consumers and unpack the key trends that will define holiday shopping this year.