The 2025 holiday season is poised to arrive amidst a perfect storm of economic woes.
High interest rates, persistent fears of a recession, worsening consumer confidence, and job market concerns are creating a high-pressure environment. While inflation has cooled slightly, the lingering effects of the past few years—coupled with current challenges—are squeezing consumers and businesses alike.
Even so, holiday retail projections still forecast growth. Research shows that 90% of US holiday gift givers plan to spend the same amount or more than they did last year. However, this isn’t a sign of confidence—it’s a reflection of rising prices. Most consumers who plan to spend more are doing so to maintain tradition, not because they feel financially optimistic.
At the same time, marketers are being asked to drive performance with fewer resources and higher expectations. The majority anticipate budget cuts due to ongoing economic volatility, and pressure to prove ROI is intensifying.
Succeeding in this environment means focusing deeply on value: not just providing discounts, but delivering relevance, reliability, and trust. And it means using the holiday season strategically—both to boost Q4 revenue and to create opportunities for long-term growth and customer retention. The brands and advertisers that seek to understand this year’s holiday shoppers, show up with purpose and precision, and deliver value while staying emotionally resonant will be the ones that stand out in this year’s crowded, cautious market.
In 2025, holiday shoppers aren’t necessarily expecting to spend less, but they are planning to spend with more scrutiny. Amidst shifting economic pressures, shoppers are setting budgets—more than two-thirds say it’s important to set a budget, and over half plan to stick to it—and are being more selective in how they allocate their holiday dollars.
This caution underscores the importance of value for 2025 holiday shoppers. Some are spending more just to get the same number of gifts as in years prior, while others are actively scaling back. In either case, spending is more calculated, and there’s heightened sensitivity to cost and convenience.
“Given that consumers are still spending, but doing so more thoughtfully, advertisers should focus on messaging that builds both urgency and confidence,” says Page Kelley, Basis’ Group VP of Integrated Client Solutions. “That could look like time-sensitive promotions that motivate action within tighter budgets, bundled gift offers that highlight value, or other tactics that reinforce smart, cost-conscious choices,” she says.
This holiday season, intentional spending will require intentional marketing. Advertisers who speak directly to the needs of financially cautious consumers will be best positioned to earn attention, trust, and long-term loyalty.
To succeed in 2025, advertisers also need to learn from the 2024 holiday advertising season. Last year, shoppers cited high prices, shipping delays, and limited inventory as their biggest holiday frustrations. These issues not only impact short-term sales but also can erode brand trust.
That trust is even more fragile in today’s economic environment. Rising prices remain consumers’ top concern outside the holiday season, and when wallets are tight, expectations are often higher. Shoppers have less patience for friction and will be less likely to shop again with brands who can’t deliver on the basics.
In this context, operational excellence is more than a behind-the-scenes function—it’s a core part of brand strategy. Accurate inventory, dependable shipping, and competitive pricing can serve as powerful differentiators during the 2025 holiday season. Considering this, marketing efforts should be grounded in what the business can reliably deliver. When marketing and operations are aligned, brands can both drive conversions and build confidence. And in the long run, that confidence can be the difference between a one-time buyer and a loyal customer.
The days of planning holiday campaigns around a single weekend (or even a few) are well in the past. In 2025, shoppers are continuing the trend of kicking off their holiday buying early and spreading purchases out across months or weeks, not days. In fact, 63% say they want to finish their shopping as quickly as possible (which could be before events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday). And more than half say they shop year-round to take advantage of sales. For marketers, this creates both a challenge and an opportunity: The path to conversion is often longer, more fragmented, and harder to pin down, but it’s also rich with potential for testing, learning, and sustained engagement.
Savvy advertisers will use the full arc of the holiday season to their advantage. “Holding budgets until the very end of the cycle—post-Thanksgiving, for example—can leave marketers flat-footed, without the build-up needed to truly understand and engage shoppers,” says Kelley. Instead, teams should prioritize using earlier moments to test creative, warm up audiences, and understand which segments are most likely to convert. Using the full span of Q4 to build momentum ensures that each dollar works harder when peak demand hits.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that teams can afford to overlook high-intent retail windows, such as the week before Christmas: “Brands need to show up with strong, compelling offers during those times to avoid disappointment or brand switching,” says Kelley. “But staying present and relevant across the full journey is key.”
Ultimately, holiday advertising isn’t just about driving a single sale. It’s about using the extended season to build brand trust, optimize performance, and convert high-intent buyers into long-term customers.
Amidst economic uncertainty, many shoppers have heightened expectations around value. While 79% of global consumers reported trading down in Spring 2025, that doesn’t always mean cutting back on quantity or turning to discount stores. More than half now actively hunt for deals with every purchase, while others are shifting spend across categories, cutting back on one area to splurge in another. In this environment, it’s critical for marketers to prove value.
But value isn’t always just about cost. It’s about convenience, consistency, and confidence that a product is worth the investment. With more than one-third of consumers reporting cross-category trade-offs, marketers must be clear: Why should someone choose your product over a competitor’s? What lasting value does it deliver?
In this landscape, promotions, loyalty programs, and free shipping are now the norm, not a perk. “Marketers can lean into personalizing both messaging and incentives by using segmentation based on past behavior or loyalty status,” says Kelley. “Building momentum through well-timed promotions can also help generate organic buzz, allowing your budget to stretch further.”
At the same time, emotional resonance still matters. The holidays are a time of joy, connection, and tradition—especially during periods of volatility or uncertainty. Campaigns that pair clear value with thoughtful storytelling will earn trust, drive results, and leave a lasting impression that can extend well beyond the holiday season.
In a year defined by economic uncertainty and financial caution, advertisers must align their holiday strategies with the realities of the moment. That means spending efficiently, showing up consistently, and speaking directly to holiday shoppers’ desire for both value and connection.
“The most effective holiday plans build momentum that carries into the new year, not just a spike that fades in January,” says Kelley.
__
Want even more insights into how to maximize holiday campaigns in 2025? Our newest research report, 2025 Holiday Shopping & Advertising Trends, explores insights from a GWI x Basis ImpactIQ survey of 2,000 US consumers and unpacks the key trends that advertisers need to know about holiday shopping this year.
