How Political Advertising Will Impact the Media Landscape in 2026

Every election cycle, political campaigns compete with nonpolitical advertisers for the same inventory—driving up costs, limiting availability, and creating brand safety challenges. In 2026, that pressure is set to reach new heights.

The 2026 midterm elections are on track to be the most expensive midterms in US history. Political ad spending this cycle is projected to reach $10.8 billion, a 20%-plus increase over the 2022 midterms’ $8.9 billion and nearly on par with the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential cycle.

The forces driving that spending are significant. Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs, with 35 Senate seats in play, including special elections in Florida and Ohio. All 435 House seats will be contested, and a record number of House members are not seeking reelection, creating open-seat races where neither candidate benefits from incumbency. And with a deeply unpopular president, a war started without congressional authorization, and rocketing gas prices setting the backdrop for the cycle, the political environment is primed for aggressive spending on both sides.

For nonpolitical advertisers, this translates to tighter inventory, higher CPMs, platform-specific restrictions, and heightened brand safety concerns across channels. That complexity is compounded by challenges resulting from a fragmented media environment and the rise of AI-generated content. Here’s what marketers need to know heading into peak political spending:

Key Takeaways:

• CTV is the most contested channel. Political CTV spending is projected to reach $2.4 billion in 2026, and platforms that accept political ads (Hulu, Roku, YouTube) will see the sharpest CPM increases. Platforms that don't (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video) offer a comparatively sheltered alternative.
• Timing is a key factor. Roughly 50% of political ad dollars run in the final 30 days before Election Day. Nonpolitical advertisers should plan pacing adjustments around the September-through-November window and look for favorable post-election pricing.
• Spending will concentrate in specific markets. California is projected to lead all states at $1.1 billion in political spending, followed by Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. Advertisers with heavy presence in those states should expect and plan for elevated CPMs throughout Q3 and Q4.
• Brand safety risks are escalating. AI-generated political content, including deepfake ads already running in 2026 races, is proliferating faster than platform enforcement or federal regulation. Contextual controls, keyword exclusions, and placement monitoring are essential.

2026 Political Ad Spending Breakdown: Senate, House, Gubernatorial, and Downballot

During the 2024 election cycle, political ad spending totaled $11.2 billion, with the presidential race alone accounting for $3.2 billion. Without that top-of-ticket race in 2026, spending will concentrate more heavily on congressional and gubernatorial contests—especially in the states and media markets where those races are most competitive.

On the Senate side, spending is projected to hit $2.8 billion, slightly surpassing the 2024 record. Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are the cycle’s most closely watched races, with multiple contests likely to surpass $500 million in ad investment. States like Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas could also attract significant spending as Democrats pursue pickup opportunities against a 53-47 Republican majority. And the pressure is building early: Campaigns are moving up their ad timelines to secure inventory before rising demand pushes them out of competitive markets.

Spending on House races, on the other hand, is projected to reach $2.2 billion, marking the first time spending on the chamber will exceed the $2 billion mark. With competitive seats concentrated in the New York and Los Angeles media markets—12 of the projected 40 competitive seats sit in those two designated market areas (DMAs)—nonpolitical advertisers in those regions will likely feel outsized pressure.

Gubernatorial spending is expected to hit $1.95 billion, with open seats in Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin driving substantial activity in those states. Arizona, Nevada, and New Jersey are also projected to see significant gubernatorial ad spending, with New Jersey’s race alone expected to more than triple its 2021 investment. And downballot spending, driven by ballot propositions and state legislative races, will account for 36% of all political ad spending, representing $3.9 billion.

The bottom line for nonpolitical advertisers is that political spending in 2026 will not be distributed evenly across the country. It will cluster in specific states, specific DMAs, and specific channels.

When and Where Political Ad Spending Will Peak in 2026

Political advertising follows a predictable cadence. Historical data shows that roughly 50% of a cycle’s political dollars run in the 30 days before Election Day, with about 25% concentrated in the final 10 days. Early voting may push some of that spending slightly earlier in 2026, but the Labor Day-to-Election Day window will remain the period of highest intensity.

Sports programming will intensify the pressure. The FIFA World Cup, hosted in the US, Canada, and Mexico from June through July, will drive significant demand for sports-adjacent inventory, particularly on CTV and streaming platforms. That demand will overlap with the early stages of general election spending, which means CPMs in sports-adjacent inventory could start climbing well before the traditional September-through-November political window. Then, from Labor Day through Election Day, college football and the NFL will overlap directly with peak political ad spending. And with political advertisers increasingly using live sports as a targeting proxy—reaching voters in specific states and DMAs based on the games they watch—nonpolitical advertisers competing for the same inventory in battleground states should expect particularly elevated CPMs during that window and plan their sports buys accordingly.

Geographically, the hottest markets will track directly with competitive races. States projected to see the highest total political spending include California ($1.1 billion), Michigan ($936 million), Georgia ($757 million), North Carolina ($669 million), and Texas ($556 million). Advertisers with heavy presence in those states should plan for elevated CPMs and limited premium inventory throughout Q3 and Q4.

Political Ad Spending by Channel: CTV, Broadcast, Digital, and Audio

Broadcast television still commands the largest share of political ad spend, at just under 50%. But that share is effectively flat from the last cycle, and broadcast revenue is actually declining slightly from 2024. The growth story is in CTV.

Connected TV is the only media channel projected to see increased spending over the 2024 presidential cycle. Spending on the channel is projected to reach $2.4 billion in 2026, up from $2.34 billion in 2024, and accounting for 23% of total political ad spend.

Several factors are accelerating this shift. First, cord-cutting continues to reshape the television market. Streaming captured 47.5% of all TV viewing in December 2025, while cable’s share continued to decline. As audiences—including older demographics who have historically been the most cable-loyal—continue migrating to streaming platforms, political advertisers are following them to CTV. At the same time, CTV’s targeting capabilities allow political advertisers to reach specific geographies and demographics with precision that broadcast cannot match.

For nonpolitical advertisers, this creates a compounding inventory challenge. Major CTV platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video do not currently accept political advertising, which pushes political dollars more heavily into platforms that do: Hulu, Roku, YouTube, and others. That concentration effect means CPMs on those platforms will spike and inventory could be tight, particularly in competitive markets during the September-through-November window. On the flip side, those same political-ad-free platforms represent inventory that nonpolitical advertisers can access without competing against campaign dollars at all.

Beyond linear and connected TV, digital spending on social platforms like Facebook, Google, Snapchat, and X will account for an estimated 13% of total political spend this cycle, down from 15% during the 2024 presidential cycle. That decline is consistent with typical midterm cycles, where social media and digital as a whole command a smaller share of spend without a presidential race on the ballot. Still, nonpolitical advertisers in battleground states should expect increased competition for display and online video inventory. And as political content—both paid and organic—saturates social feeds in the weeks before Election Day, ad environment quality and brand adjacency becomes harder to control.

Audio, meanwhile, remains one of the most underutilized channels in the political media mix, despite consumers spending a significant and growing share of their media time with audio content. For nonpolitical brands looking for less congested environments during peak political season, programmatic audio may offer an efficient alternative.

With so many different channel- and platform-specific considerations, omnichannel visibility is particularly important in 2026. Advertisers who can see and adjust all of these dynamics from a single vantage point—shifting budgets from high-pressure CTV inventory to less contested audio or display, for example— will be better positioned to make proactive, considered decisions rather than scrambling to adjust when pricing spikes hit.

Brand Safety Risks from Political Content and AI-Generated Political Ads in 2026

Brand safety is a perennial concern during election years. In 2026, the continued rise of AI-generated political content adds a new layer of complexity for political and nonpolitical advertisers alike.

Deepfake political ads are already running in midterm campaigns. In March 2026, the National Republican Senatorial Committee released an 85-second deepfake video of James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee in Texas, depicting a realistic but entirely fabricated version of the candidate reading old social media posts directly into the camera. Similar AI-generated attack ads have appeared in the Georgia Senate race and in state and local contests across the country.

There is no federal law governing the widespread use of AI in political advertising, and while 26 states have enacted some form of deepfake disclosure legislation, enforcement remains limited and laws vary widely in scope. At the same time, social media platforms like Meta and X have rolled back professional fact-checking programs in favor of community-based moderation, which can be slower to catch synthetic content, if it catches it at all.

For nonpolitical advertisers, this means the content environment around political news coverage, political ads, and social media will be more volatile and less predictable in 2026. The specific risks will vary by channel and by advertiser. Consider a healthcare brand whose display ads unexpectedly appear alongside coverage of an abortion ballot initiative, or a family-oriented retailer whose pre-roll video ads run ahead of an AI-generated political attack ad on YouTube. The brand safety risk is meaningful even when the adjacency is accidental. Three-quarters of consumers feel less favorably toward brands that advertise on sites that spread misinformation, and ads that avoid risky political content see a 32% lower cost per conversion and significantly higher success rate than those that appear alongside it.

Brand safety controls—including site-level block lists, keyword exclusions, and contextual targeting—will be critical, particularly for display and online video placements where ads appear directly alongside editorial and user-generated content. CTV presents fewer adjacency risks because ads appear within streaming content rather than alongside it. Agility is a major competitive advantage considering the brand safety risks that accompany the midterms. Advertisers who can quickly adjust placements, update exclusion lists, and monitor brand safety across channels from a single, unified platform will be better equipped to respond when conditions shift—whether a deepfake goes viral, a controversial ad surfaces, or a political story dominates a news cycle.

How Nonpolitical Advertisers Can Protect Ad Performance During the 2026 Midterms

Navigating a $10.8 billion political advertising cycle requires both planning and flexibility. Here are practical considerations for the months ahead:

• Plan inventory early: For brands that need to maintain presence in competitive markets during Q3 and Q4, programmatic guaranteed (PG) deals and private marketplace (PMP) arrangements offer a way to lock in pricing and access before the market tightens. Premium CTV and video inventory will be the most contested, and waiting until September will likely mean paying peak prices—or being shut out entirely. Working with a platform that maintains broad PMP and PG relationships across publishers can simplify this process and expand the pool of available inventory.
• Build pacing around the political calendar: Rather than applying uniform pacing across Q3 and Q4, advertisers can map their flight schedules against the political spending curve: tapering in the weeks before Election Day when CPMs peak and accelerating in the November-through-December window when political dollars exit and pricing typically drops.
• Lean into less contested channels: When CPMs spike on platforms that accept political ads, having budget earmarked for reallocation gives advertisers room to move. Building alternatives into the media plan now—rather than scrambling to find them in October—is the difference between a proactive shift and an emergency pivot.
• Tighten brand safety controls: Brand safety controls should be treated as evolving rather than static. Block lists and keyword exclusions set in Q1 may not reflect the political content environment by September. Marketers should plan for mid-cycle reviews of exclusion lists, contextual settings, and placement quality—particularly for display and online video, where adjacency risks are highest. Having brand safety tools baked into the same platform where campaigns are planned and activated makes it easier to adjust quickly as conditions shift.
• Monitor the competitive map: As competitive races shift and spending projects update throughout the cycle, the pressure points could move too. Advertisers in key battlegrounds should track not just current projections but race rating changes, which can signal where new spending surges are likely.

Preparing Your Media Strategy for the 2026 Political Ad Spending Cycle

The 2026 midterms will test nonpolitical advertisers' ability to maintain reach and performance in a historically expensive and complex media environment. With a record amount of political spending projected to flood broadcast TV, CTV, and digital channels, the pressure will be acute in battleground states and high-profile DMAs from Labor Day through Election Day.

What makes this cycle particularly challenging is the convergence of multiple pressures at once: record midterm spending, a shifting CTV landscape where political dollars are concentrating on a subset of platforms, AI-generated content complicating brand safety, and major sports programming overlapping directly with peak political season. Advertisers who treat these as isolated issues rather than compounding ones risk being caught off guard by pricing spikes and inventory shortages that are already predictable.

The post-election window is worth planning for as well. November through December historically offers favorable pricing as political dollars exit the market. Brands that build their Q3 and Q4 pacing with that rebound in mind can recover reach and efficiency quickly.

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For more on how political advertising is shaping this year’s cycle, check out The Ultimate Guide to Political Advertising in 2026.