Technology
Basis Platform
Advertising Operating System
Communication Portal
Intelligent Collaboration
All Channel Activation
Activate Media on Every Channel
Consulting
Resources
Key takeaways:
It might not feel like it, but the end of the year is just around the corner. One more glorious month of summer, and then school’s back in session, fall sports seasons are kicking off, and consumers are starting to shop for the holidays. (That’s right, holiday shopping starts in September now!)
As advertisers begin to plan their holiday campaigns, accounting for consumer sentiment and behavior is critical. And while each audience segment has its own characteristics and motivations, one theme will unite most gift givers: economic uncertainty.
2026 has been a trying year for US consumers. January marked a two-year low in confidence in the economy, and consumer sentiment dropped to a record low in May, driven by cost-of-living concerns. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have also led to dramatic fluctuation in oil prices, which have weighed on the broader economy and household budgets. While total holiday retail spending is still expected to grow year over year, much of the forecast 4% increase likely reflects higher prices rather than more purchasing.
As such, holiday shopping this season will be defined by strategic, considered spending. And with purchases expected to stretch across the final four months of the year, advertisers should be prepared to stay present and competitive throughout the season. That means understanding how economic anxiety is changing consumer behavior, then rethinking how to plan, pace, and coordinate campaigns in response.
Economic and geopolitical conditions are forefront in consumers’ minds in 2026. Almost half (45%) of US consumers say that political and geopolitical change has shifted their outlook on the holidays. This will lead many consumers to spend with more discretion: Among US consumers who plan to spend less on holiday gifts, wanting to save due to concerns about the economy ranks as the leading reason.
That discretion will show up in how consumers spend, more than in how much they spend. More than half plan to spend the same as last year, but a growing share are approaching the season differently. Roughly a quarter of gift buyers plan to hunt for more deals (26%) or prioritize a smaller number of carefully chosen gifts (28%). Some shoppers are also widening their consideration sets and slowing down their decision-making: 30% say they compare more retailers than they did two or three years ago, and 27% report taking more time to research products before they buy. These shifts, while not universal, point to a holiday shopper who is more deliberate about where their money goes and more willing to shop around before committing.
In addition to how consumers shop, economic pressures will also impact when they shop. A quarter of US consumers plan to spread out their holiday shopping due to current events, and 68% say they shop early to avoid delays. That behavior traces back to the pandemic, which reshaped how consumers approach the season—extending it from a short sprint into a months-long window. What started as a workaround for shipping delays has since hardened into habit. Economic pressure is now reinforcing that habit, as shoppers who spread purchases across several months can pace their spending, watch for markdowns, and avoid the concentrated hit of a single December splurge. As a result, the holiday shopping season will span from September through December.
Taken together, these behaviors point to a holiday season defined by shoppers spending carefully, comparing widely, and starting early.
The most successful holiday campaigns in 2026 will be run like marathons rather than sprints, paced for delivering impact throughout the entire final third of the year. The longer, more deliberate shopping season will reward advertisers who prioritize value, maintain presence throughout, and coordinate campaigns across channels to build visibility and consideration.
Prioritizing value means surfacing deals and shipping perks early in the season. Shoppers will take their time with purchasing decisions—researching, weighing options, and validating choices before they buy—and value-focused messaging that shows up early and often will place brands in the consideration set from the moment consumers start crafting their shopping lists.
Reaching these discerning shoppers also demands more precision from advertisers. The season's length complicates planning, as there's less of a concentrated time frame within which to spend. This is especially true considering the diminished importance of Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Over half of US consumers now say that shopping during these events isn’t critical, since brands offer deals throughout the season.
Considering this, matching the right message to the right person at the right time and on the right platform during these months requires agile, data-driven planning. With shopping spread across four months rather than clustered around discrete events, building a strategy that reaches the right audiences across every channel and moment becomes far more complex.
New tools are helping advertisers craft these strategies more easily. For example, AI-powered omnichannel planning tools can quickly create holistic media strategies across walled gardens and the open web, aligning channels, budget, and objectives into one plan. These capabilities offer significant returns, with research showing that synergy between advertising channels (a major challenge for today’s advertisers) multiplies brand impact—in fact, one study found that 43% of brand impact comes from this synergy.
Of course, the work isn't done once the plan is set. To maintain and improve effectiveness, advertisers should learn from their campaigns as they go, applying new learnings week over week. This can be done manually, but given the level of complexity, all-channel optimization is well-suited to automation. Marketing teams who use AI-powered optimization to let each week of the campaign sharpen the next will be best positioned to reach shoppers with relevant messaging throughout the holiday season.
Ultimately, in a season this long and this deliberate, advertisers who plan early, coordinate widely, and optimize continuously will have a major advantage.
This year’s holiday season will reward patience and precision. Consumers are spending deliberately, comparing widely, and starting earlier, which means the old playbook of concentrating budget around a single peak weekend no longer fits how people shop. Advertisers who lead with value, craft holistic, omnichannel plans, and refine their approach as the season unfolds will stay present in the moments that matter, from the first September search to the last December purchase.
—
Want the full picture of what's driving holiday shoppers this year? Our 2026 Winter Holidays Shopping Trends Report breaks down the consumer behaviors shaping the season, along with what they mean for advertisers’ campaigns.